Talk of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz misses the real threat to the global oil market, says Derek Brower
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Posted in Iran, Iraq, oil, oil markets | Leave a Comment »
I’ll have a logistical update later, at tumblr.derekbrower.com. My post from April about how to get into Benghazi from the Egyptian border at Salloum was my most-read-ever post.
For now, I’ve used some downtime in Djerba to update more recent published pieces, mainly for The Economist and Petroleum Economist. They’re here.
Posted in Benghazi, Libya | Tagged Tripoli | Leave a Comment »
I’m now updating more frequently at derekbrower.tumblr.com
It’s just a bit easier on the eye and definitely smart-phone friendly.
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Sad Salloum (Photo: Eric Kampherbeek, www.lacouleur.nl)
I promised myself that when I was back from Libya I’d do a favour to other journalists — especially the freelance ones like me — and write a post about the specifics of getting into the rebel-held east. Forget the fears about heading into a warzone: before I left for Libya, it was the logistics that troubled me most. And, specifically, I was worried about how dicey or otherwise the trip across the north of eastern Libya would be.
It isn’t. The trip was safe. There’s a big difference between going to Benghazi, now deep inside rebel territory, and going to, say, Brega or Misrata. This post isn’t about that kind of trip.
So here, to prevent others going through the same fruitless Google search for information, is my Guide on How to Get from Egypt to Benghazi. Continue Reading »
Posted in Libya, Uncategorized | Tagged Benghazi, Egypt, How to get from Salloum to Benghazi, How to get to Benghazi, Libya, Salloum, Sallum | 1 Comment »
I’m at home in Buxton watching the Masters, my kids are asleep upstairs, and Libya — where, inshallah, I’ll be on Tuesday morning — feels a long way off.
I had this great idea about six days ago: get to Benghazi and do a story on the Transitional National Council and its oil plans. Now that the tickets to Cairo for Eric Kampherbeek, a photographer, and me are booked, along with a hotel in Marsa Matruh (on the Mediterranean coast, west of Alexandria as you run your finger along to the Libyan border), I’m beginning to realise just how far in over my head I may be. Continue Reading »
Posted in oil | 1 Comment »
Investment banks reckon we’re in for it. Opec says it’s happy where things are. China’s oil demand last year was 17.5% higher than the year before.
This is dangerous and short-sighted. In countries like the US and UK, fuel costs are within spitting distance of the records set in 2008, when a big wave of demand destruction spread across the West.
Inflation in China, which prompted two interest-rate rises in Q4 last year, is worrying the government. Another effort to dampen growth can’t be far off. The Fed may end quantitative easing if the US economy picks up, as data on Friday is expected to show it has. That will strengthen the dollar and drive down oil prices.
And the premium Brent (about $98/b) is enjoying to WTI (about $88/b) means we’re in for some kind of correction, soon. Expect a flattening of the contango and a dip in prices back under $80/b, if not lower. And expect the IEA to revise its demand outlooks back down again. Demand destruction, part 2, is on its way.
Update: Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said today he’s worried about speculators again. No doubt. It’s 2008 all over again.
Update 2: I’ll be interviewing Opec’s Sec-General Abdallah El-Badri next week. Nice guy, always a good interview, always insightful, and with a lot on his plate at the minute.
Posted in Brent, Oil demand, oil price, Opec, WTI | Leave a Comment »
My piece for The Economist on the tar/oil sands is out.
(“My”, by the way, is always a bit of a stretch for an author of an Economist piece, at least in my experience. In this instance, brilliant editors Patrick Lane and Oliver Morton, and Ottawa correspondent Madelaine Drohan, among others, were all heavily involved, too.)
One of the questions I’ve been getting is about the use of “tar sands” versus “oil sands”.
I think it’s a silly question. Yes, I know some Albertans, especially those working in the oil industry, don’t like the term (“It’s not tar!” or “It’s a loaded term!” are common cries). And, being more accustomed to “oil sands” when I write for others, I can sort of see the point. No question, “tar” sounds a tad filthier than oil — which I think sounds a bit dirty anyway.
But, really. People should get over themselves. The stuff looks more like tar than oil. The easiest way for tar-sands boosters to lose the battle over what they’re called is … to get upset about what they’re called. The best way for them to win it is to make “tar sands” a neutral term by using it themselves.
And think of the journalist’s plight. In a story about oil, it’s already difficult to find synonyms to prevent tedious repetition. “Oil”, “crude”, “petroleum” (all of which mean slightly different things, too), and so on. In a 3,000 word story about the tar sands, that “tar” lightens the load a little.
The other complaints about the piece so far have been from people saying that it’s unfair. That’s from both greens and oil execs. So we must have got something right.
Posted in Canada, oil sands, tar sands | 1 Comment »
Yesterday’s piece in the NYT on coal pointed out some ironies — for example, that many of the countries and jurisdictions that have taken decisions to restrict coal use or put penalties on carbon emissions are now stepping up exports of the black stuff themselves:
The United States now ships coal to China via Canada, but coal companies are scouting for new loading ports in Washington State. New mines are being planned for the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. Indeed, some of the world’s more environmentally progressive regions are nascent epicenters of the new coal export trade, creating political tensions between business and environmental goals. … As a result, not only are the pollutants that developed countries have tried to reduce finding their way into the atmosphere anyway, but ships chugging halfway around the globe are spewing still more.
But it ignored the elephant in the room: natural gas. Continue Reading »
Posted in Canada, China, climate change, Coal, Energy, Energy politics, Environment, LNG, Natural Gas, Renewable energy, Shale gas, Sierra Club, Unconventional gas, US | Leave a Comment »
Nasty stuff
I’m a bird lover. In fact, I’m just about to go for a daily lunch-time break in Derbyshire’s Goyt Valley to look for some birds. But the campaigning against the oil sands of Canada on the grounds that the toxic tailings lakes are killing birds is getting silly. There are plenty of serious threats to birds: vicious, murdering predators (aka “domestic cats”) are one. So are skyscrapers, windmills, cars and — above all — the destruction of habitats and the spread of pesticides.
Two major incidents in the oil sands in the past two years have killed about 2,000 birds. The industry says the oil sands kill 65 birds a year. Some people say — probably with good reason — that the figure could be much higher, around 2,000 a year.
But consider:
There are plenty of reasons to complain about the oil sands. And any unnatural bird death should be lamented. But let’s get some perspective.
*LEND A HAND ON THE LAND! Please join me in my daily battle to keep cats out of bird habitats, such as my back garden.
Posted in birds, oil sands | Leave a Comment »
I’m busy. In addition to editing the ever-expanding Petroleum Economist and its excellent new channel on unconventional energy (called, imaginatively enough, PE Unconventional), I’ve four major writing projects on the go.
The last of these is a weekend and weekday 5am-7am project. The early starts are the only hours I can find when my children aren’t commanding space, time, and energy. (**I’m not complaining. Frankly, they’re more interesting.**)
The usual requests: if anyone wishes to contact me about stories, you know where to find me.
Posted in China, Energy, Energy politics, Geopolitics, Iraq, Natural Gas, oil markets, oil sands, Petroleum Economist, Saudi Arabia, Shale gas, Unconventional gas | Leave a Comment »
