This story’s important and I think it could shift the debate on EU gas supplies a little. Thanks to Edward Christie (quoted in the piece) who guided me through some of it. It was in the August issue of PE. As ever, the full thing is for subscribers only. But it’s worth it.

A short-term collapse in demand and long-term plans to draw on renewable supplies could transform the EU’s energy sector. Are the worries about energy supply over? Derek Brower reports

EUROPE’S gas-import needs are falling just when projects to deliver more to the continent are at last making progress. And do not just think of a short-term dip in demand caused by the recession: structural changes in the way the EU consumes energy mean that, by 2020, the bloc could import almost a third less gas than it was forecast to (assuming an oil price of $100 a barrel).

The European Commission’s own long-term forecasts for gas demand should change the dynamics of the entire natural gas import business (see Table 1) – and have significant implications for the EU’s relationship with its main suppliers, including Russia. Remember the dash for gas – the explosion in gas-fired power generation in the 1990s and early 2000s that increased Europe’s gas demand just as its own domestic supplies began to dwindle? That is in the end game. So, too, may be the paranoia about the bloc’s dependence on Russia. (…) The rest is for subscribers, I’m afraid.