After an initial recovery in output, oil prospects are dipping
BOTH sides in Libya’s civil war knew they would need to sell oil again fast once the conflict was over. So for the most part they took care not to ruin the energy infrastructure. For example, while fierce fighting was devastating the western town of Zawiya, the large oil refinery to its north lay idle but untouched by war, its workers still able to have lunch in the canteen.
By mid-2012, less than a year after Muammar Qaddafi’s demise, Libya’s oil production, almost entirely switched off during half a year of ferocious fighting, had regained its pre-war level of about 1.5m barrels a day (b/d)—years earlier than expected. Proudly, Libya’s new leaders said output could soon rise to 2m b/d or more. The oil minister, Abdelbari Arusi, promised a new hydrocarbons law and an auction of leases for unexplored territory to foreign oil companies. Libya’s oil reserves, at 47 billion barrels, already Africa’s biggest, could—it was said—increase by another 10 billion. (…)
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